Bought litecoin (LTC) at US$2.373

I will buy more if it dips below US$2.

Bought Gold Fields Ltd (GFI) at US$4.49

Serenity stocks has filtered out this stock based on Graham enterprising criteria. Ray Dalio has bought it at 1Q and 2Q and currently losing money. So, I have effectively bought cheaper than him. From Serenity stocks:

Assets / Liabilities = 0.89
Assets / Debt = 0.92

Will GlobalInv fall to $0.145 again?

It is said that this guy is a ten-percenter at $0.145. Its figures are:

PE (4.5) < 5-year low (6.2)

P/B = 0.6

net profit margin = 80%

ROE = 14%

I am looking to buy at about $0.145.

Where is the bottom for JC Penney?

This is a S&P 500 company that is bleeding like hell with:

market cap = 1.7B
P/B = 0.7
EV/EBITDA = -4.9
profit margin = -13%
ROE = -53%
current ratio = 1.4

I am interested to see the lowest it can reach.

Will ANF fall to its bottom?

This guy, Abercrombie and Fitch Co Class A, is a S&P 500 company with:

market cap = 2.6B
PE = 11.2
P/B = 1.5
EV/EBITDA = 4
profit margin 5.6%
ROE = 14.5%
current ratio = 2.1
dividend = 2.3%

There is nothing wrong with this company. I am targeting to buy at under US$31.

Is this the lowest for Alcoa?

This is the world's third largest aluminium company and a S&P 500 company with:

market cap = 8.7B
PE = 68 (high due to low demand and falling aluminium prices)
P/B = 0.7
EV/EBITDA = 7.1
profit margin = 0.6%
ROE = 0.7%
current ratio = 1.1
dividend = 1.5%

The industry has been seeing shrinking demand and falling aluminium prices. As a result, earning has also been shrinking. As the stock price falls accordingly, it is supported at a base price. That is why, the PE is high at 68. I will be targeting to buy below US$8.

Will Yeo HS's support at $2.50 be broken?

From Yahoo:

PE = 45
P/B = 2
EV/EBITDA = 35
profit margin = 6.4%
ROE = 5%
current ratio = 3

From Reuters:

PE (26) > 5-year high (23)
yield ~ 0%
profit margin = 11%
ROE = 8%

SingPost about to fall?

This guy is in a flag formation. From Reuters:

PE (20.9) > 5-year high (19.4)
P/B = 3.6 (too high)
yield ~ 5%
current ratio = 1.5
profit margin = 19%
ROE = 21%

This guy is expected to grow in sales and earning.

SuperGroup uptrend broken?

From Yahoo:

PE = 22.6 (too high)
P/B = 5.4 (too high)
EV/EBITDA = 21 (too high)
profit margin = 18%
ROE = 25%
current ratio = 3
debt/equity = 0.1 (almost no debt)
yield = 1.7%

From Reuters:
PE (23.2) > 5-year high (22.9)

This guy needs to revert to mean for the time being.

Will Shanda shoot from here?

This guy has a firm support at $3.84 and an even firmer support at $2.70. The stochastic oscillator has already shown the divergence but there is a stochastic bear yet to overcome. From Yahoo:

PE = 6.2 (5-year low is 4.7 from Reuters)
PEG = 0.6 (Will be growing)
P/B = 1.4
profit margin = 25%
ROE = 24%
current ratio = 2.6

This guy looks good to me in all aspects.

End of uptrend for Biosensors?

Is Biosensors ending its short uptrend with a double tops? Its stochastic oscillator is already showing divergence. Data from Yahoo:

PE = 17.5
EV/EBITDA = 11.1 (slightly too high)
P/B = 1.3
profit margin = 29%
ROE = 7.9%
current ratio = 11.2

From Reuters:

5-year low (5) < PE (14) < 5-year high (24)

Sales and income shrinking may be the reason for its drop. This company is expected to grow. Current PE is at about 5-year average.

IndoAgri reversing?

Is this guy at the point of reversing? From Reuters:

PE = 18 (still average 5-year average)
P/B = 0.8
current ratio = 1.4
profit margin = 7.5
ROE = 4.3%

Sales and earning are expected to grow next year.

Is CapitaRChina ready to go?

Is the clear black support line valid? From Yahoo:

PE = 6.2
P/B = 0.9
Profit margin = 103% (Wow!)
ROE = 16%
Current ratio = 3.6

Earning is expected to grow. This guy is pretty decent. I don't see much room for it to go down further.

Clear resistance line in HKLand US$?

I see a clear slanting resistance in HKLand US$. Generally, the whole property sector is going down?

FrasersCT looks set to go down?

The guy looks set to be unable to cross 50d EMA again. Will I be right?

Why Jardine C&C, JMH 400US$, JSH 500US$ dropping so much?

Why are the above 3 dropping more than STI? Are these 3 mostly touched by institutions? Is the elaborate dropping of these 3 signs that smart money are moving out of the market in advance of the others?

Will Fortune REIT break HK$6.00?

This guy is on a downtrend. Will the bear be stopped at $6.00? 200d MA support has turned into a resistance. From Yahoo:

PE = 3.2
P/B = 0.6
profit margin = 289% (What?)
ROE = 22%
current = 0.37 (over-leveraged)

If the property bubble bursts in HK, the guy may die. I bet the support will be broken soon.

OKP shows a very strong base at $0.38

Market broke the $0.38 support before but only for a short while. From Yahoo:

PE = 12
P/B = 1.3
profit margin = 7.9%
ROE = 10.4%
Current ratio = 2.6

Figures from Reuters roughly the same.

Will the $0.71 support be broken for Hi-P?

If the $0.71 support is broken, the next support will be $0.65. It will be hard to imagine that it will reach its ultimate support of $0.45. From Yahoo:

PE = 17 (Expecting more earning next year)
P/B = 1
profit margin = 3%
ROE = 6.2%
current ratio = 1.5

The above figures are supported by Reuters.

Is HL Asia looking for the base?

This guy looks like looking for its base. Will it be $1.40 or $1.30? Looking at Yahoo data, P/B is 0.6, EV/EBITDA is 1.46, profit margin is -0.7%, ROE is 4.4%, current ratio is 1.4 and cash flow is negative. From Reuters, the figures are almost the same.

Has Silver beaten the bear?

Looks like the Silver bull has acted in the oversold region. Will it be shot down by bear soon?

Will UOL's triple bottom be broken?

There is a flag formation with a slanting triple top challenging a flat triple bottom. Based on Reuters' info, current PE is near a 5-year low at 4.6. P/B is at 0.74. Current ratio is at 2.3. Profit margin is incredible at 111%. How can this be? ROE is at 17.5%.

Vard supported at $0.87?

The uptrend is broken. Currently, it is oversold at lower Bollinger band. From Reuters, this is a growth stock. It has won many contracts. Current PE is 9.5, higher than 5-year high. P/B is 1.5. Current ratio is 1.2. Profit margin is only 4.5% ROE is 15%.

Is Wee Hur supported?

The dropping seems to have stablised. From Reuters, this guy also seems to be a gem. PE is near 5-year low at 2.8. P/B is at 1.5. Current ratio is 2. Profit margin is 20%. ROE is 65%. Unbelievable!

Is Wing Tai supported on 200d MA?

From Reuters, this stocks seems like an under-valued gem with PE close to 5-year low at 3.06. And, profit margin is 44%. ROE is 21%. Current ratio is 5.6. P/B is 0.57. Only downside is sales and earning are expected to drop next year.

Value stocks as at 2013/9/10

China Mobile [Hong Kong] Ltd (CHL): PE 6.3
Interdigital (IDCC): PE 11.2

Stopped out of Yanlord at $1.255

STI drops below support of 3212 and turns bearish. It's a bad sign. I decide to cut loss at $1.255 and incur a loss of 4%.

Bought Yanlord at $1.305

As China market did a breakout, Yanlord broke out of a tight price range with 2 consecutive white candles and twice the average volume. Today, the price retracts to $1.28 and buyers push the price back to $1.305. I deem this as a good sign to buy. Cut loss will be set at $1.26 for a tight cut loss of 4%.

THBEV falling almost ending?

This is another good stock to be bought.

Yongnam sharp falling with high volume

The fall has just started. This is a good stock waiting to be picked up.

Sold Wilmar at $3.15

I have no confidence in the 2Q result to be released tomorrow. Profit is just a mere 1%.

Bought Wilmar at $3.11

There is a clear support at $3.11 with many tails and the volume is falling to a suffocating level. MACD has been flat for some time. This stock has been very still lately. There should be something to stir it up or down soon. Fingers crossed that it will be stirred up. Currently, the price is very near the rock bottom. Price to cut loss is set at $3.00 and target exit price is set at $3.90. So, this is a 25% gain to 4% loss play.

Vard dropping nicely

Vard dropped nicely to $0.90 at high volume indicating panic selling as cost overruns in Brazil projects largely due to rising labor cost. It will be interesting to see it drop below $0.80.

APTT offering 9% yield at $0.81?

At $0.81, the yield is almost 9%. I am certainly drooling.

Wilmar currently a good buy at $3.12?

Wilmar is showing many long tails below $3.12. I reckon this is a very good entry price.

SGX's buying opportunity at below $6.0?

SGX has a strong support at $5.60 and rarely stays below $6.0. Furthermore

Biosensors' rock bottom at $1.02?

Biosensors rebounded at $1.02 with small volume. Meanwhile, many institutions are issuing buy calls with high margins. I vow that I will buy if it touches $1.02 again.

How do I interpret volume?

Low volume is a sign of caution. Price movement associated with low volume may be noise. High volume is a sign of things to come or a confirmatory sign of trend.

High volume with large price movement may indicate continuation of trend. High volume with low price movement may indicate reversal of trend.

How likely is suspension?

I once checked that the suspension rate in SGX is about 3%. This is the possibility that a stock will get suspended in its lifetime. The chance that I will encounter suspension while holding a stock should be much lower as I don't hold it for a lifetime. One way I can avoid getting hit by suspension is to shun small caps.

Should I short?

Shorting incurs additional cost like borrowing cost. Unless there is serious bad news, the gain from shorting is going to be limited.

Is year-end rally and sell in May valid?

I observe that, provided there is no major bad news, year-end rally usually happens. A sell-off in May is also bound to happen. So, the Market seems to have a seasonal mood.

When do I cash in for my mid-term trade?

I would like to cash in after other mid-term traders have cashed in as I know mid-term traders are less likely to cash out easily. Frankly, it is not easy to tell when the mid-term traders have cashed in.

One way is to look for a single-day volume spike. But, sometimes, mid-terms traders do not rush in in a single day, resulting in no volume spike. In that case, I will have to look for crossing of some mid-term trend line.

When do I sell off my investment?

I will choose to sell when the yearly yield drops and I can find another stock with high yield.

Why I don't invest in foreign Market

When I invest, I look primarily for yield to make holding worth. The beholding tax of 30% in foreign Market will eat into my yield. Though insignificant, there is an additional custodian fee of $2 per month which adds up to $240 in 10 years.

How does the Market behave?

The Market likes to react to macro news. This is in line with Dow theory that stock prices quickly incorporate new information as soon as it becomes available.

When will I invest?

I will invest when I see a yearly yield of 8%, price below NAV and gearing less than 35%. If the price falls after I have bought, I will buy more at a substantially lower price.

What is my bet size?

The deeper the dip, the bigger will be my bet size.

When is the best time to buy?

A rising tide will lift all boats. The best time to buy is when the bull overwhelms after a dip. For mid-term trading, the chance comes about once or twice a year. For investment, the chance comes about once in a few years.

Links

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Why I don't buy during the maintained phase

During this phase, the bulls and bears are in a stable state. Neither side is stronger. At this point of time, the mid-term traders are either cashed out or haven't cashed in. Only the swingers and scalpers are cashing in and out.

It's not certain which way the Market is likely to go after this phase. But, I can predict with fair accuracy that the Market will go down if I can see that the mid-term traders have cashed out. Likewise, the Market is likely to go up if I can see that the mid-term traders have cashed in.

Why I choose not to pay for courses

There is plenty of material on the internet which I can get for free. Shouldn't I save my hard-earned ammunition for actual trading and investment?

Why I choose not to be a swinger or scalper

As a swinger, I am just picking pennies in front of the bulldozer. The success rate is low and the risk is high. It is highly dangerous and the reward is scanty.

Worse still, scalping requires even more monitoring and concentration to the extent of near-zero distraction. It is best done in full isolation. And, it's a highly skillful game.

Types of players in the Market

There are intra-day, short-term, mid-term and long-term traders in the Market. The intra-day traders can be called scalpers. The short-term ones are also known as swingers. The mid-term traders can be called position traders. The long-term ones are also known as investors.

I believe these 4 types of players contribute to the 3 types of price movement trends depicted in Dow theory, with scalpers and swingers contributing to 1 type of price movement.

Phases of the Market

The Market is perpetually in the bullish, maintained and bearish phases. I shall buy in the bullish phase. And, I shall sell in the maintained phase or start of the bearish phase.